Morning Star Fish Report

 

Fish Report 3/27/10

Fish Report 3/27/10
A Tease
A Taste
Data Broadly
 
Hi All,
Snuck out Thursday and were not warmly received by schools of tautog swirling under the boat like a Tarzan movie's piranha awaiting the next tasty crab leg to fall.
No, it was a slow bite. Still chilly. I had a demon on briefly; personally lost every fish that bit. A few clients goose egged with me. One guy limited and tagged but was way off his game in-so-far as the bites he had: Don't like to use names here but his initials were Dennis. 
It was just an odd bite - a tease. Tagged two short cod as well. 
Sunday was another matter altogether. Best bite since late February. Four guys limited, most caught dinner, there were a pair of skunks: Pat T. took the pool when he tagged & released a 25 inch female.
It's getting ready to happen.
But first we'll take a couple more days for maintenance & CG readiness on account of weather: Resume toggin Wednesday 3/31.
We have CG inspection next week. After that I'll open a lot more days.
Very late now, this fishing has to bust loose.......
 
 
Data-data-data!
Here I want to give some simple examples of what our recreational catch estimating system was designed to do and some glaring examples of what it could never do. Entertaining with statistics is challenging at best so stick with me; I'll try to mix a few fish stories in. Our official catch-estimates are a lot of what's wrong with the fishing we have, not the fish.. The conflicts constantly resulting from poor data and its ill-advised use distract us from the fish we really have lost, fish that could use our fully focused attention; where we really do need to get to work.
 
Some readers will remember our Boston mackerel fishery. Triple headers, quads; Heck with a cooler, many guys would bring a trash can for the wear-you-out crazy-good fishing. It was always a big deal when local TV personality, Scorchy Tawes, would arrive at the docks come spring and interview the old timers, "When will the mackerel arrive?"
In an age before internet we had 2 or 3 days from when we first caught a load of mackerel to selling out 7 days a week.. The run usually peaked around Easter. Once we started chasing the fish north passenger numbers would fall off.
And then it would be over.
Sanding and painting 'till sea bass got thick.
 
Almost 20 years now, they could come back of their own accord. May yet.
 
The mackerel fishing that everyone had known since boats were launched from the surf, since before there was an inlet, died when a Joint Foreign Fishing Venture circa '91 & '92 was allowed. Huge factory processors bought American caught mackerel--All They Could Get.
Although it was happening all around us and to many species, we had no notion that there could ever be an end to what always was. At that time striped bass & weakfish were the only recreational species I can remember under management. Flounder may have had a 12 inch limit; The surf-clam industry was under intense regulation.
It was then, when these last "underutilized species" were being sought, that the Mid Atlantic Fishery Management Council (MAFMC) arranged for these foreign processor ships to buy American commercially caught macks..
I think we still do not understand that just because biologists have created a coastwide stock assessment that the fish will behave to suit. We had not learned, and still have not learned, that we should never manage fish as if there were no regional separation in spawning stocks..
With disappointingly inadequate scientific deliberation the US allowed the southern stock of atlantic (or Boston) mackerel to be overpressured with an incredible surge of fishing effort.
It has yet to come back..
Recreational clients have long-since ceased coming.
 
MD's Pete Jensen would forever make the argument that recreational fishing is never about catch, just camaraderie.
Yeah UhHu. 
 
Nowadays the more northern stocks, which survived just fine apparently, are taking more pressure than ever.
 
Ah, Wandering.. I want to use Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS, say Murfs) catch estimate data on mackerel to illustrate what MRFSS was designed for: Catch Estimates That Show A Trend.
See if you can spot it.
 
Species: ATLANTIC MACKEREL Maryland Rec. Landings
Year HARVEST (TYPE A + B1) PSE
1983 655,859 42
1984 263,320 57.9
1986 167,094 44.8
1987 285,035 52.2
1988 195,732 41.5
1989 264,121 40.4
1990 537,301 52.8
1991 176,571 50
1992 53,464 59.5
1994 16,373 46.2
1995 6,594 50.4
1996 109,822 58
1997 48,923 53.7
1998 11,279 64
1999 30,444 34.5
2000 4,172 73.2
2001 39,222 63.3
2002 3,616 68.2
2003 7,026 67.4
 
Note - 1993 is missing as are 2004 thru '09 -- I presume those are zero catches.
Point here is you can easily see a shift in catch starting in '92.
Did we really catch exactly 109,822 in 1996? Heck No.
Did we really catch exactly 537,301 in 1990? Heck No.
Did we really catch exactly zero in in 2009? Well, probably.
 
Trends in catch, however, are evident. That is all MRFSS was ever designed to do. Never a two month or wave by wave real time analysis: "Warning! Warning! Recreational Fishers In Sector Nine Are Approaching Fifth Week Quota!"
Um, No.
More like..
"Seems like the recreational catch on mackerel dropped off pretty fast after the factory processors were let in; Do you think we screwed up?" 
That was its design.
 
But we are using MRFSS for real time analysis.
No manager I know has ever pondered the lost mackerel fishing..
 
For this report I tried to access our historical landings of red hake too; called them ling or lingcod. Used to be up on the recreational statistics site. Fishery's gone & now the data's gone as well; I think both are restorable, the data far more simply...
 
 
Very importantly, the PSE or percentage standard error that you see to the right of each catch-estimate in the chart above represents the real statistical answer. Political polls would be scrapped if they exceed 4% PSE. To them 4% represents a very high margin of error. 
Yet throughout MRFSS there are numerous examples where the PSE is above 50%.. Even 100% PSEs occur.
Still & importantly, a statistician will say that is the answer, that the centerpoint is only a number that represents a large field where a true number might be found.
Statistically perfect or nearly so: I'm sure the internal policy of using the statistical centerpoint as if it were hard-data is where recreational fishing's troubles source; That when the centerpoint wanders far above the correct number, beyond and inexplicably higher than any other catch-estimate, the system fails.
 
Now, just for something out of left field, how could we fairly allocate these Atlantic mackerel with recreational Catch Shares?
Popular right now; lot of folks think Catch Shares are the new answer to fisheries restoration. I might too without a sense of how fouled-up the data is, how lacking some management plans are in basic understanding of the managed species' behavior; In a world without waves the paper & flat-screen calculations all look so good.
If we use MRFSS to permanently divvy-up recreational catch, some are going to hit the jackpot, others will get robbed. The chances that mackerel will be divided up using a 5 year average from the 80s is miniscule.. I wouldn't possibly have enough landings to qualify for a catch-share of mackerel in the last decade, despite that I fully participated before the collapse; And didn't create it.
  
 
Ok-Ok. Catch shares another day.  Fast forward a piece. You have seen in many of my past reports examples of summer flounder and black sea bass data that are accepted and used by management; Yet those data sets are thought laughable---in most anguished fashion---by fishermen.
 
This catch estimating program, MRFSS, that was supposed to show by general trend how recreational fishing was doing now needs be as a predator drone with real time transmitted aerial surveillance to satisfy the needs of modern managers.. It's not about where the enemy was an hour ago, it's where they are now: Not rec-fishers catch-trend of the last 72 months, managers now want the last 72 hours.
MRFSS, however, is still equipped with black & white film that has to be delivered, developed & analyzed.. Apparently the enemy has infiltrated the system too, is frequently creating diversionary decoy data sets that send staff off to create trouble within our ranks--Closures.
 
We know MRFSS is over-tasked, that's why the new federal registry system was developed to take over -- MRIP.
Folks I know on the inside do not think MRIP will necessarily deliver speedier data; Its enhancement of our present system will come as a much better estimate, almost a hard number, of participants.
 
Because field interviewers give a broad spectrum of pure catch data--what really got caught by an individual angler in a face to face interview. MRFSS must then take fantastic guesses of how many people participated: Here is where the system occasionally flies apart. MRIP, with its Angler Registry, will have a much better idea of how many people went fishing; can call them...
 
Simply smoothing the data, removing the flyers, should be enough for all but the most high-pressure fisheries. Adding truth to catch estimates will preclude the most contentious management: Where bad data leads to poor governance, better data must lead to improved governance.....
 
Now I'll present some for-hire tautog numbers that I think would certainly interest anyone who has read this far. Party and charter boat catch only here - I know quite a bit about it because MD has only one seaside inlet. Managers must think there are crazy pulses of fishing effort - that our clients demand one species or another but almost never two years in a row.. Scroll down through this real data.
Species: TAUTOG Maryland Charter/Partyboat
Year HARVEST (TYPE A + B1) PSE
1981 4,670 65.9
1983 2,126 57.4
1984 36,008 59.9
1985 486 59.7
1986 5,476 64.6
1987 765 42.9
1988 14,849 63.5
1989 3,150 52.2
1990 541 61.3
1991 2,413 47.7
1992 2,354 84.7
1993 8,652 44.8
1994 19,314 37.6
1995 1,799 66.7
1996 216 81.3
1997 2,461 67.1
1998 1,235 62.7
1999 3,604 63
2000 1,165 90.5
2001 3,635 60.1
2002 17,650 39.7
2003 6,532 26.6
2004 6,439 26.8
2005 5,693 20.6
2006 2,969 14.2
2007 9,417 25.6
2008 5,572 16.8
2009 11 90.3
 
 
Dang!
Eleven fish in MD for 2009 in the entire for-hire industry?
Whaaaaat....
That certainly requires adjustment.. maybe move the PSE up a couple digits? What if that got thrown into a recreational catch-share average? 
We all did at least some toggin last fall. Cbass closed, had to target tog. There is no excuse for an estimate this low. 
Crazy.
 
The catch shown in this table in 1988 & 1994 never happened.
At all.
Nor the decline from '94 to '96.
The catch in 2002 is fantasy; We were solid into some of the the best sea bassing I'd ever seen. Maybe 10 guys on the planet can fish a crab while doubles of nice sea bass are coming over the rail. There were no party boat trips targeting tog at all in 2002.
 
Eleven fish.. It was a proportionally similar --but opposite-- data failure that was used to close sea bass by emergency regulation last fall.
..despite that we turn in a 6 layer deep carbon-copy catch data form taken on a day-by-day basis: Mail it to 'em..
There really is no excuse for saying MD Charter/Party caught 11 tog last year.
It is a gigantic Screw You - Fishers have never fought the data and won - MRFSS says we caught 11 fish or 8 million - They always win.
 
Still, here's an easy one, 11 tog, a slam dunk--multiple eyewitness--error. Almost 30 years of data though.. You see a spike in 1984. Happened too. It kept right through the next year in real-life, but that got missed in the data. They didn't pick up on the fact that the surge in tog effort continued for 2 1/2 years.
I remember - was working deck - netting peoples fish - would catch big tog on diamond jigs when the day's crabs were gone.
With no limits on a species with a narrowly defined and shrinking habitat -- We crushed 'em.
And then our tog catch stayed very, very low and flat for about 2 decades. Wasn't the commercial bad guys - We did it.
 
In 2003, after over a decade of a self-imposed 3 fish at 16 inches limit, a hard lesson learned about habitat and fishing pressure, and having failed in an effort to get MD to go with a larger size limit in the ocean to increase egg production; We resumed tog fishing with the State's 5 fish at 14 inches limit.
 
I could pry this farther apart by researching my own logs but you can see again that trends are evident in the party/charter data though not perfectly so: OK, it's very poor here, but evident if you have background knowledge---perfectly evident that some estimates are just wrong at least.
 
 
Another Then: The slipperiest data sets are almost always the private boats--except when shore estimates go badly wrong. Here's the set for private boat ocean fishing for tautog -- does not include the back-bay or jetties. Watch for consistency. (but don't hold your breath)
 
Species: TAUTOG Maryland     Private Boat - All Ocean Combined
Year HARVEST (TYPE A + B1) PSE
1982 8,507 100
1987 62,758 69.5
1988 64,332 68.8
1989 910 0
1990 438 75.4
1991 282 100.3
1992 7,971 43.8
1993 6,913 30.6
1994 1,215 100
1995 4,747 100.8
1997 20,859 49.2
1998 3,713 71.5
1999 0 0
2001 5,952 91.2
2002 0 0
2003 538 93.1
2007 20,082 75.3
2008 1,350 0
 
Hmmm.. I'd call HS on the whole data chart. That means Highly Speculative and has nothing to do with what gets cleaned from a horse's stall.
 
I'd wager 1991, 2003 & 2008 are the best sets here. Remember, this estimate does not include the jetties and such, just the ocean.
The 1987 & '88 sets are hallucination; There were maybe 40 private boats that might target tog, less than a dozen were serious about it..  
Zero caught in '99 - Zero again in 2002 - 2004, '05 & '06 are zero by omission: And 20,082 were caught in 2007?
This is precisely the type of data that is being used to destroy the recreational fishing industry...
 
 
Below is Everybody in Maryland's Tog Effort --Boats, Shore, For-Hire-- Everybody. See what you spot..
Species: TAUTOG Maryland        All Areas/All Effort
Year HARVEST (TYPE A + B1) PSE
1981 4,670 65.9
1982 35,105 61.1
1983 2,126 57.4
1984 42,835 51.6
1985 486 59.7
1986 5,476 64.6
1987 90,523 53
1988 107,570 45.3
1989 34,709 42.9
1990 45,467 26
1991 26,770 36.9
1992 106,255 35
1993 60,231 30.7
1994 157,260 31.3
1995 43,542 36.4
1996 9,695 43.8
1997 85,682 34.1
1998 6,512 45.8
1999 20,180 44.1
2000 20,129 50.3
2001 23,715 40.9
2002 42,038 29.2
2003 13,555 31.4
2004 14,049 55.5
2005 39,993 48.4
2006 14,314 48.2
2007 107,061 30.5
2008 24,127 28.5
2009 38,194 34.5
 
 
You may well remember in 2007/08 when we had to pick an "Option" with which to take our mandatory reduction; That because we had "Over Fished Our Quota" in 2007 we would be allowed less the following year..
I spent maybe an hour trying to refute the data.
No Mercy.
Irregardless how obvious the implausibility of the data, managers won't even fight it. Policy is to use the centerpoint: Subordinates need a paycheck and will use the data as ordered.
 
Their defense: The data Could be right. Just add more fishers - lucky ones at that.
 
Lots of people want to add greater and greater layers of complexity to our data collection; Make it real-time like the hi-tech surveillance on an Afghanistan hillside's battlefield.
I think greater complexity leads to higher expense and often to failure.
Were we to take the hic-ups out of the MRFSS flounder, sea bass & tautog data we'd have management flowing along fairly well.
Remove data sets that are only supported by managers under duress of job loss and fishers wouldn't be in such trouble.
 
Instead though, managers are running around from emergency to emergency, fishers are trying to cope with closures in the great recession; A great embattlement over the sourest of data sets ensues.
 
Below are the MRFSS sea bass tables that I think were pivotal in closing our season last year. They're self explanatory. Yet these are some of the data sets that have taken our sea bass season from 11 months to 3 months. We really need fairhanded governance here.
Words on paper can change how numbers on paper are used.
Then we can get back to fixing where the fish live, a place where paper has, thus far, been nearly useless.
 
We did not overfish. 
Sea bass habitat remains undiscovered.
Habitat fidelity remains unused in a coastwide management approach.
 
The very worst that can happen is we go back to a size/creel/season that we know rebuilt sea bass and other species for well over a decade.
Sacrificing an entire industry in worship of MRFSS data is shameful.
There's a new team in place that can fix it.
Ought to.
 
Fishery Closed: Shifting fishing effort to whatever remains open then retards progress in other restorations.
The fishing public's faith in governance goes lower.
Lifetimes of work are destroyed by complex calculation without the simple posit: Could this catch estimate possibly be correct?
See cbass data below. I'd wager any would see what I'm talking about.
 
Needs Fixin. 
We need our sea bass season back.
 
Regards,
Monty
 
Capt. Monty Hawkins
mhawkins@siteone.net
Party Boat "Morning Star"
Reservation Line 410 520 2076
http://www.morningstarfishing.com/
 
 
Species: BLACK SEA BASS - MA - Private Boats - Wave 4 - July/August
1,122.28% Increase
Year HARVEST (TYPE A + B1) PSE
2005 43,478 42.6
2006 27,518 44.1
2007 13,062 71.3
2008 13,548 69.4
2009 165,595 25.6
 
Species: BLACK SEA BASS -MA - Partyboat - All Areas - Wave 3 - June/July
14,564.64% Increase
Year HARVEST (TYPE A + B1) PSE
2005 204 32
2006 74 31.7
2007 3,015 31.1
2008 526 19
2009 77,136 32
 
 
 
 
Wave 2 NJ Party Boats - March/April
Species: BLACK SEA BASS
15,230.5% Increase
Year HARVEST (TYPE A + B1) PSE
2005 61 71.1
2006 30 99.6
2008 134 100.1
2009 20,543 37.7
 
Wave 2 March/April - From 1998 to 2009 - New Jersey, Private Boats
Species: BLACK SEA BASS
942.2% Increase
Year HARVEST (TYPE A + B1) PSE
2002 9,921 92.9
2007 3,302 74.1
2009 34,418 56.4
 
 
Species: BLACK SEA BASS - Private Boats - New York
455.2% Increase
Year HARVEST (TYPE A + B1) PSE
1999 23,711 62.8
2000 13,179 66.5
2001 0 0
2002 59,718 55.3
2003 59,282 25.6
2004 4,852 59.6
2005 17,591 95.4
2006 58,051 81.4
2007 12,461 89.7
2008 15,320 47.2
2009 85,056 36.5

posted by Monty  # Monday, March 29, 2010
 

Fish Report 3/23/10

Fish Report 3/23/10
Goin Fishing
Flounder Regs
CCA's "Train Wreck"
 
Regular Tog Trips Sailing Through April 1st: (Light Winds Thursday 3/25!) Boat sells out at 14 - Green crabs provided - Cabin heated - Leave at 7:00 for these trips (or earlier if all are aboard) - Return no later than 3 - 3:30 (usually) - $100.00 buys a spot - Reservation a must, that phone number in signature - Email does not work for reservations - Call - Leave a good phone number--Cell--in case of cancellation.
Tog Limit is 4 fish @ 14 inches - We encourage the release of all females under 16 (and some way bigger too!!) Fish Pool is decided by length so tagged and released fish can count too.
Stay tied-up Easter Sunday.
Have Coast Guard inspection in the second week of April - Will announce more trips when I get an all clear from them...........
 
Hi All,
There is a sigh of relief among the coast's flounder fishers today, Maryland DNR has reversed course and adopted a longer flounder season with a 19 inch fish.
We can officially fish until Thanksgiving.
Very nearly had a much shorter season. Atlantic Coast MSSA, Larry at the Coastal Fisherman newspaper, OC's State Delegate--Jim Mathias, myself & many other fishers, local press and even Candy Thompson at the Baltimore Sun set up an awful howl..
 
Different somehow.. Eh, having DNR listen isn't so new; It's having them dig in, see if there's substance in the complaint -- and respond.
That's different. Pleasantly so.
 
Can't swear to it, but I think the same thing is happening at the Federal level.
I was on a huge rec-fish conference call last week with NMFS director Eric Schwaab & staff; From Alaska down and around to back up the East Coast it seemed pretty evident that accumulating errors in the data are pinching the system all over---many different problems all stemming from data.
Nothing concrete yet in way of action, just possibilities: Lot of listening getting ready to happen.
NOAA just announced that Russell Dunn has been appointed National Policy Advisor on Recreational Fisheries. That's a brand new position, reports directly to the boss-lady, Dr. Lubchenco. In the same press release they announced a 22 member Recreational Fisheries Working Group..
In mid-April there's a recreational summit in Silver Spring.
Big possibilities.
 
There still remains the darker possibility that 2010 was the year few party boats could survive.
Black sea bass regulations are still up in the air. We rebuilt these fish with barely a care, first just a size limit, then increases in size with a 25 fish creel.. I still assert that we do not have a management plan on sea bass that can actually work, but even in its scientifically-impaired fashion we somehow have a better sea bass population than before management.
We just can't go fishing.
With cbass closed that fishing pressure shifts--All along this coast tautog fishing will not be made better because of the extreme reaction of closing sea bass over highly-suspect data.
That's just the tip of it.. Plenty more fisheries in similar trouble.
 
Closing sea bass--reacting to the data in such fashion--was just wrong. We ought to know by now that the Marine Recreational Fishing Statistics Survey--MRFSS--is being replaced for good reason.
 
Just today one of the guys that is always digging into data, Buddy, sent me a bit of raw 2009 MRFSS flounder data -- 44 observed fish from private boats in July/August are tossed into MRFSS's computer---just 44 observed flounder.. These practitioners of the statistical dark-arts turn 44 into 45,281 flounder caught/kept and 595,190 caught/released.. Pow!
That's so cool. Reminds me of the guy that used to sell tickets when I was in my early twenties.. Always biting -- Always filling up sacks..
 
Crunched a bit, just back of the envelope stuff; 45,281 flounder means 91 boats with 3 people aboard limited out everyday it was fit to go --- the rest of the boats had a solid bail of smaller ones.
Hmmm.. that's not how I heard it.
No, I don't think so..
 
Looked at another way: During the same period (July/Aug 2009) 725 flounder are said to have been caught/kept on the party boats that fish exclusively for flounder in the back bays and a few on the Chesapeake. MRFSS also has 18,325 thrown back--released.
Using just their fish data and a ball park guess of clients, I estimate the back-bay party boats caught/kept 12.8 fish per day on average or 0.04 keeper fish per person.
Party boats turn in daily catch data so we should be able to see almost exactly what they caught. Sometimes it seems like MRFSS is using that data, sometimes not. Given my familiarity with the fishery I see no reason to seriously doubt these <3 mile from shore/inland party boat estimates.
 
Main thing is, if they average 0.04 keepers per-person and the private boat guys catch keepers just as well then to have caught 45,281 keeper flounder 1,120,000 people went fishing. At 3 per boat that's 6,222 boats targeting flounder -- at 4 per boat that's 4669 boats targeting flounder. Everyday.
Everyday for two months.
 
Must have been a great year to be a boat dealer.
Hmmm.. Not how I heard that either.
 
But that IS our data. It is exact centerpoints of statistical spreads---It's what we caught whether there's a lick of truth in it or not. Its why we had to fight tooth and nail to keep a rod & reel fishery open until Thanksgiving: Why we'll throw back an insane number of fish this year too.
 
And, comparatively, that wasn't too crazy a data set.
 
This is messed up. So messed up that even the Coastal Conservation Association--CCA---appears to have come over -- is opposing data. I have long been a member of CCA and will always be indebted for their spurring Maryland back into artificial reef construction.
I'm really, truly glad to see this huge recreational fishing organization coming in off the sidelines for a data fight.
 
From CCA's recent Press Release: Google--CCA Train Wreck.
"...We have the most conservation-oriented law we have ever had governing our marine resources, and the agency does not have the data, assessments, science or, frankly, the attitude, to adequately implement it," said Chester Brewer, chairman of CCA's National Government Relations Committee. "The result is that the agency has been reduced to managing fisheries by closure which was not the intent of the law when it was passed by Congress.
.....There is a great deal of frustration among recreational anglers, much of it attributable to an agency that doesn't have the ability to properly manage us," said Pat Murray, president of CCA. "The shortcomings of NMFS have to be fixed, either administratively or by Congress. Recreational anglers deserve both a meaningful law, and an agency capably of implementing it." http://www.ccatexas.org/coalition-seeks-to-avoid-fisheries-management-%E2%80%9Ctrain-wreck%E2%80%9D/ 
 
I'm in. Where do I sign up?
 
Getting all the players to the table and exposing data to daylight could save my industry..
Could.
What if Big Environment sat down too?
 
For the fish the worst that could happen is we go back to a size/creel/season that worked previously.
And we take people fishing.
Pay taxes on our earnings.
Buy fuel, fishing poles, bait.
Visiting fishers rent a room, go to dinner.
Some might even tip my mates.

Almost like a mini-coastal economic recovery plan. 
 
The fish are fine.
Its the people that need help.
Regards,
Monty
 
Capt. Monty Hawkins
mhawkins@siteone.net
Party Boat "Morning Star"
Reservation Line 410 520 2076
http://www.morningstarfishing.com/

posted by Monty  # Tuesday, March 23, 2010
 

Fish Report 3/20/10

Fish Report 3/20/10
Ran Past The Bite
Fishing Thru 4/4
Extended Flounder Season?
 
 
Hi All,
Friday I took out 4 guys; Sam, who caught the current state record with me a few years back; Dennis & Alex who could set a new one any day.. And Bill who, naturally, won the pool..
Slooooow fishing.. Ran offshore; swung for the fence and struck-out. With 4 kept and 2 thrown back, it was so slow that I cancelled this fabulous day--Saturday--to await just another degree or two of water temp.
Now I hear that boats inshore did better --not smoking hot, but better-- Kane on the Judith M deserves a shout-out, some small boats too.
Tomorrow---3/21, Sunday---looks to be another beautiful day---Going. I'll try 'em inshore. Tide's right, weather's right.. We'll see! 
Also opening the book from March 25th to April 4th with April 2cnd, 3rd & 4th as special die-hard tog trips discussed below.
 
Regular Tog Trips: Boat sells out at 14 (it's warmer!) - Green crabs provided - Cabin heated - Leave at 7:00 for these trips (or earlier if all are aboard) - Return no later than 3 - 3:30 (usually) - $100.00 buys a spot - Reservation a must, that phone number in signature - Email does not work for reservations - Call - Leave a good phone number--Cell--in case of cancellation.
 
Special One-Time Triple Long Tog Trips By Request: April 2, 3, 4 - leave at 5:30 AM Back at 5:30 PM - I'll have bait but most will likely have their own - $140.00 Buys a Spot -- 14 sells out. Reservation a must, that phone number in signature - Email does not work for reservations - Call - Leave a good phone number--Cell--in case of cancellation.
 
Tog Limit is 4 fish @ 14 inches - We encourage the release of all females under 16 (and some way bigger too!!) Fish Pool is decided by length so tagged and released fish can count too.
 
Have Coast Guard inspection in the second week of April - Will announce more trips when I get an all clear from them...........
 
 
This Week's Fishery Dilemma: Maryland DNR wrote a press release that our flounder season would close in late September.. It didn't get sent.
State Fisheries Director Tom O'Connell met with tackle shop, marina, party & charter boat representatives Saturday afternoon; He heard loud and clear that we want our fall flounder season back, That we want "Option 5" which carries through to nearly Thanksgiving..
There was overwhelming public support for the longer season too. He seemed pretty convinced..
We'll see if a different press release gets drafted.
 
If you have read these reports for long you know that: A) I am a very conservation minded skipper. B) I think our recreational catch estimating system is destroying whole swaths of the industry; That we are said time and time again to have gone over quota when participants wonder what parallel universe the data came from.. That despite their very real repercussions, these catches just never occurred.
Whether we caught over quota or not, we must pay for these supposed overages in reduced quota the following year..
 
Sea Bass are still undecided. We will shortly be hammering away at that again.
Because of insane fluctuations in catch estimation by a system already sentenced to the shredder, we may yet lose more than half of our sea bass season.
 
A hypothetical: If you were a commercial fisherman allowed by special "Catch Share" to land 20,000 pounds of black sea bass and the price of the fish varies from $1.00 to over $5.00 per pound depending on size: Would you ever land any of the smalls, mediums & larges that weren't worth what Jumbos are--Even if you had to throw smaller ones back dead? If it meant the difference between $20,000.00 worth of smalls or $100,000.00 in the same weight of jumbos? Would you put the resource or your family first?
Needs Fixin.
 
Earlier this year we saw, for the first time ever that I know of, the Science & Statistical Committee reconvened with the Joint Monitoring Committees to consider new evidence in the sea bass fishery -- Though it was work already done, they raised the quota. 
Our more serious sea bass trouble lays with MRFSS overestimating the deadliness of private boats to our north--There's some really bad guesswork up there.
Still, the SSC and JMC reconvening was good governance. We had complaints and were heard.
I saw that again today. We had a complaint about our flounder season and were heard.
Good governance.
 
Right at the top of NOAA there is the power to hear--perhaps even in Supreme Court fashion by oral argument--our evidence that some recreational catch estimates have been wholly implausible, that they could not have occurred.
Snowballing now for many years: When accused of going over-quota rec fishers have the overage deducted the following year. Instability in catch-estimates is like Russian Roulette with 3 of the 6 cylinders loaded---With a deducted overage in place the data can put a fishing type (shore, private boat, party, charter) over the following year even more---Then That Gets Deducted..
Snowballing..
 
This system needs a big dose of truth.
I don't mean the Pravda-like stuff that consumes some, I mean as close to truth as we can realistically get.
Soon.
 
I think there's some work to do out there; Ecosystem--Habitat & Prey--restoration work, Commercial regulatory & discretionary dead-discard bycatch work..
Find the truth of recreational catch, Find the truth of recreational release mortality, Find the truth of stock sizes and their spawning sub-stock ranges, Find the truth of reef's importance: Truth is bound to give better results.
Has to.
 
Imagine a huge dam long under construction that had produced electricity since day one. Now, scant months away from completion, residents are cut off from power.
For some it's an irritation that they worked these many years and now have time or they have long family generational ties; For others it is economic ruin. 
They gather to watch as water---first a trickle, then a flood---flows over the top of the dam: Yet the turbines remain still.. a water-volume/catch-estimation program said so.
 
We can plainly see wasted opportunity cascading over the top..
And know there are major breaches in side-valleys too.
Everything used to work - Now It Doesn't.
 
Needs Fixin.
Sea bass--RIGHT NOW--would be a great place to start.
Regards,
Monty
 
Capt. Monty Hawkins
mhawkins@siteone.net
Party Boat "Morning Star"
Reservation Line 410 520 2076
http://www.morningstarfishing.com/
 
 
 
 
 

posted by Monty  # Saturday, March 20, 2010
 

Fish Report 3/18/10

Fish Report 3/18/10
Going Fishing
Pins & Needles
 
Hi All,
We should have the inflatable life-raft back in its cradle by nightfall 3/18/10. Very confident of that.. barring calamity on the highway; we will.
The water temp at the weather buoy off the MD/DE line is at 41.9 as I write.
That's warm enough: But is it all the way down?
 
No one got out last weekend in that horrible weather. We'll have to go see if they're biting-----It Is Not A Sure Bet.
Just two trips with this email: Friday, March 19th & Saturday, March 20th.
Light winds forecasted - Boat sells out at 12 - Green crabs provided - Cabin heated - Leave at 7:00 for these trips (or a tad earlier) - Return no later than 3 - 3:30 (usually) - $100.00 buys a spot - Reservation a must, that phone number in signature - Email does not work for reservations - Call - Leave a good phone number--Cell--in case of cancellation. (..here if the life-raft somehow fails to arrive!) Minimum Number Of People For These Trips Is Zero - I'm Going Fishing.
 
Sea Bass by Federal Regulation remains undecided. Maryland's summer flounder too.
Managers & Regulators spend much time now putting out fires, distracted.
The closer I get to all this, the more I see that the fire's fuel is data; Ignition in misrepresentation: That the Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey--MRFSS--and Data-Poor Stock Assessments are the fuel; Using the exact center of these statistical spreads to create a single, hard data point creates ignition.
The problem is the data - It really is.
Maryland rec fishers did not go over quota on flounder in 2008.
All the states fishing Long Island Sound should bloody well have a simple, reasonable creel limit---New York should not have to consider, say, a 2 fish limit at 22 inches. It's ludicrous.
The whole coast did not overharvest sea bass last year.
When Maryland is said to have caught 30+ thousand flounder in two months from shore in 2007 - Our guys, after deepest consideration, think 600 is more realistic for that period. Not 600,000 --Not the 36,017 official catch estimate-- Just 600. 
 
Years and Years of accumulated bad data.
Managers & Regulators in opposition to each other within the states and between states, combat at the federal level--These struggles can be as brutal as what we witness currently on Capitol Hill...
I picture ancient Mayan Priests arguing how many humans to sacrifice to appease their gods; To get the best result from multiple killings of humans in ritualistic fashion.. Perhaps lower priests were made to carry out the orders of the high priests. They believed, they really believed it was the best thing they could do.
Well documented. We can't guess how many died*.  
Most theologians today would argue that was using bad data..
 
*(OK, maybe MRFSS could.)
 
Here--Now--While managers argue the best way forward for fisheries restoration using these unsupportable MRFSS & Data-Poor stock estimates, the economic vitality of recreational fishing slips away; wasted upon the stone-carved gutters of useless sacrifice.
It could all change by order of a high-priest..
 
Red Snapper, Black Sea Bass, even Summer Flounder --where we seem to have selected for flounder that use robust reef-- are among the Data-Poor fisheries. Here data is collected knowing it is lacking, but is used as Hard-Data -- even though it's far more a "Best Guess."
Data-Poor is what the science & management communities call it, it's their term.
Fishers call it.. well, nevermind. I try to keep polite language here..
 
On a desk cluttered with papers these estimates seem more credible, more plausible while camouflaged amidst better science. On a fillet table that hasn't been used much recently, they find less traction.
I think this is rock-bottom of the fisheries--our nadir; That MRIP, the new federal registration where they can actually count participants, will bring substantially more truth to our catch estimates.
Many think I'm far too optimistic, that we'll never get a fair shake.
 
Time will tell..
..tell about the tog bite next couple days too.
Going Fishing!
Cheers,
Monty
 
Capt. Monty Hawkins
mhawkins@siteone.net
Party Boat "Morning Star"
Reservation Line 410 520 2076
http://www.morningstarfishing.com/
 
 

posted by Monty  # Thursday, March 18, 2010
 

Fish Report 3/12/10 A

Fish Report 3/12/10

CG Inspection Stuff

Culled Out..

Truth in Fisheries

 

Hi All,

Get my life-raft back I'm going fishing.

Have scheduled a CG safety inspection for early April.

The most important thing happens at the end of every day: People walk off the boat. Getting ready for and having CG inspections is about never swimming off the boat...

We've done some maintenance, will do some more between fishing trips. Have to get that life raft back though before we fish. 

By then the water should be ready for another try at tautog.

 

An article has absolutely blown up on the web--Culled Out. It fit a model that some would like to see moved forward and was even picked up by a major news outfit--Fox.

ESPN has apologized  http://sports.espn.go.com/outdoors/saltwater/columns/story?columnist=bowman_steve&id=4982359 

Snopes has blasted it http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/fishingban.asp 

A student of propaganda could make a study of it.. 

 

It just so happens that I was at a meeting today (3/12/10) of the Coastal and Watershed Resources Committee where the ongoing activities of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Council on the Ocean --yes, MARCO-- and Marine Spatial Planning, MSP were discussed.

Our region's contribution to Ocean Policy --MARCO-- was the last Regional Council to form under Bush 43's guidance. MSP is its crucial tool; cutting edge charting, zoning, a way to permit big-energy so they can get busy with wind & oil.

 

I absolutely promise; This my deepest, fullest guarantee: Had I not been at this meeting that discussed MSP & Ocean Policy the word 'Fish' would not have been uttered. Energy people & policy wonks are not concerned with fishing. At all. Unless they are forced to be because there is an overlap. There is.

 

MARCO & MSP---our Ocean Policy--is about Energy - Big Energy.

I am active in voicing comment because I think Big Energy isn't going to give the south end of a north-bound rat if we "Used to fish there".. I'm there to protect our region's fishing grounds--All of 'em.

It so happens too that coral reefs remain un-found off our coast.. Right where they want some windmills.

I want wind-power too--Big Time.

Carefully.

And I want Big-Energy's help..

 

This week, and many others, big-water trawlers towed across corals that no human has laid eyes on and caught the heck out of fish in 50 - 60 fathoms. I'd wager their dead-discards would keep us fishing this season..

 

We remain ignorant of habitat crucial to our region's fisheries.

I think big-energy will be the impetus, the driver, for its discovery.

We fishers ought to make sure.

 

Sakes knows the flame that Jacques Cousteau ignited, that spirit of discovery that sent a generation of explorers to sea, has seemingly died--or been buried in bureaucracy..

Corals that no human has seen - Really.

 

The flounder you might catch in a back-creek in coastal Virginia or on the edge of the shoal behind OC's convention center will spend the winter in the deep--near the canyons.

The squid that fed a white marlin until it ate a ballyhoo.. 

It all ties together.

 

I wrote the piece below as on Op-Ed.

Will make as much noise as possible when my raft is back.

Goin' Fishin.

Regards,

Monty

 

Capt. Monty Hawkins
mhawkins@siteone.net
Party Boat "Morning Star"
Reservation Line 410 520 2076
http://www.morningstarfishing.com/

 

 

 

 

 

"Obama administration will accept no more public input for federal fishery strategy" shouts the headline. "No More Input" decries the article titled "Culled Out."

The Interagency Policy Task-Force --every guvmint agency with ocean ties & all the regional councils like MARCO-- filed a framework report that included the Marine Spatial Planning that's been chugging along for a good while.

A framework report cause for alarm?

Odd, I never saw a 60 day comment period closing as such big news. True though; No more input. At least until the next phase. 

Been better to shout it out when the comment period was open; Get people to examine it.  

 

There was a window to comment months ago on the interim report too; many public meetings. 

 

Marine Spatial Planning, MSP.. so much controversy. "Entire Watersheds Could Be Shut Down" this article cries. 

MSP is not about creating fish quotas. For many fishers that's all management is, the next quota review: It's what fishermen pay attention to. 

 

Our Ocean Policy and Marine Spatial Planning is about Windmills and Drill Baby Drill. It's a way minimize conflict and, if we pay attention, MSP can ensure that culturally important fishing grounds and fish habitat aren't needlessly lost as we press on with new energy for our nation.

 

Ever heard of the nearshore corals off Maryland? I wish you had: YouTube Common Seafloor Habitat Mid-Atlantic.

 

Ocean Policy, including Marine Spatial Planning, isn't about taking away fishing areas; It's about preserving them as the US moves into a new era of energy development.

These government task forces are charged with Promoting Energy. Sustainably if possible. Any other tasks are a distant second: I seriously doubt stealing our fishing spots is one of them.

They could run us over by accident though. Have to let them know we're here.

 

I made comments on the draft policy and final framework; received feedback too. The next policy phase will seek more charting input from fishers. I know it will in our region.   

But that will be after the sport-fish conference call on March 15th with NMFS's new head, Eric Schwaab: And after the rec-fish summit in mid-April in Silver Spring. These are giant communications steps. Never been done before to my knowledge.

 

Critical time too.

 

As a party boat operator in Ocean City, MD. with 30 years experience, I am fighting for my business' very existence because of recreational catch-estimate data rotten enough to make a menhaden processing plant blush.   

 

As fishery rebuilding plans have advanced--often with great success--the effects of less than perfect marine science and data's complex illusions are creating havoc as we close in on some species' restoration.

For instance: In September & October 2007 shore fishers targeting flounder in Maryland are officially estimated to have caught what MD party & charter boats will catch in 15 years.

We are often falsely accused of going over-quota; Have repeatedly fought the data and lost: Lost because we could not prove guys fishing on the bank weren't catching like an Alaskan factory trawler: Lost because 36,017 flounder from shore in two months seemed to regulators a reasonable number even if Maryland's professional crews caught well under 3,000 that year: Lost because although the data is astonishingly poor, as the 'best science available' it is inarguable--It must be used. We suffer shortened seasons, emergency closures, size limit increases and creel limit reductions because of statistical analysis that, literally, couldn't survive the light of day. 

 

This bad data is building, cumulative: Getting worse.

Marine Spatial Planning is not the problem nor will it be. Fishermen would be foolish to allow big-energy in without some manner of safety-net.

America does need to move forward with energy policy. Fishers need to look ahead as well.

Oil wells and windmills will actually contribute to marine production, will create reef communities. However, as the Chesapeake's fishers learned with the closing of the gas-docks by Homeland Security, sometimes what's good for fish doesn't remain good for fishermen.

 

I'm proud to tell you Maryland's coastal anglers did not wait for the government; That we had self imposed regulations on many species long before management--sometimes 1/2 a decade before regulation; That we have privately funded much of our reef restoration/creation: That we are staunch conservationists.. whose businesses are being destroyed by bad catch data, poor stock assessments: A general lack of flexibility. 

 

Even the skippers fishing after WWII never had ocean flounder fishing as we now do.

Still 'rebuilding' the summer flounder population though.

 

There's been no discovery of those corals I mentioned earlier; especially the areas long-lost. 

Regulators fail to realize the positive effect of artificial reef construction on black sea bass & tautog populations: Haven't calculated the negative effects of losing enormous swaths of once productive reef-like seafloor either.

 

Recognize numbers on paper though.. Use it too, no matter how rotten.

 

The challenges of rebuilding, fishing on rebuilt stocks, and finding those species left behind are not insurmountable. Bureaucratic rigidity is making it mighty hard though..

 

All those fishermen, commercial & recreational, that recently rallied in DC were there for the Flexibility in Rebuilding American Fisheries Act.

Fishers need managers that can manage as we navigate; Follow a compass course yes, but dodge a new sand-bar.. Held rigidly to data sets of ill-found science --this math that would have made Madoff's staff envious-- our regulators are running us hard-aground.

There's no Flexibility in the Great Recession..

That is destroying the fishers.

 

What fishermen need now is truth & wisdom: Truth in stock assessments, Truth in catch estimates, Truth in news reporting and Wisdom in our governance.  

Strikes me we could use some of that near-everywhere.

 

Capt. Monty Hawkins

Berlin, MD.


posted by Monty  # Friday, March 12, 2010
 

Fish Report 3/3/10

Fish Report 3/3/10
Of Seals & Snowstorms
Inflexibility
Fresh Data
 
Hi All,
We'll take a few days, weeks, to get her ready for the Coast Guard's inspection.. See how the weather goes. I do have May 22cnd to the end of June open for sea bass - Will resume toggin' when I think it's fit.
Fished Sunday & Tuesday; bite considerably slower. Some wave-swell Sunday; very strong current from the north on both days likely contributed to the bite falling off too.
I suspect, above all, that we've finally had one snowstorm too many; that the cold water has seeped all the way to the bottom.
In way of agreement, a seal showed us the way out of the marina Tuesday morning. Saw another in the inlet.. Yes, seals. That makes 4 in my life in Maryland.
Did have 6 tog in the boat Sunday, tagged 7 releases. The biggest was Matt's 16 pound 2 ounce dandy.. Wish I'd have kept count of the fish over 15 this winter.
Tuesday it looked like Dennis's 16 something was going to take the pool when Tom stepped up with a 24 -- Talking inches here though!
Boxed 7 tog, tagged 1.
Too slow..
 
The water turns over every year; here we see the nadir, the bottom of the cycle--Where beginning in late fall the water is warmer on the bottom than the surface; cold gradually seeping down, now it is equally cold throughout..
Come high-summer it will be far colder on the bottom than the surface.
A lot of that surface warmth will come from where the water is spread thin, in the estuaries fed by the rivers; they'll warm first, their discharge an important part of the ocean's heating.
 
That's later: Now that runoff's cold.
Seals..
Cod? Tagged a 19 3/4 incher and put a 30 incher in the boat Tuesday. This time mine-mine-mine!
HmmmmTasty!
Dang that's good fish.
So is tog, but I can have that anytime.
Looking for something nearly identical but different; Somehow a perception of better. Grass is greener.. Lot of human troubles source from there.
But not for want of a different fish to bake--In a hurry, microwaved with butter, salt and pepper: Awesome.
Lunch & dinner until gone. Promise.
 
So here's this cod..
They've been written about extensively--Kurlansky's "Cod: A Biography of the Fish that Changed the World." is excellent..
We've nicked a few of late; Mike opens up its belly after filleting and out spill 2 seahorses, an atlantic mackerel--keeper too, just like we used to catch and I hope to one day catch again--plus a non-riverine herring and a sea mouse. (picture a cross between a sand dollar, sea cucumber & a small porcupine--search google images 'seamouse'.)
 
What a story just having this fish, a far grander tale in its belly. The mackerel are virtually lost here. Could come back; should do. I'll be looking hard this year - Its been since the very early 1990s that I could offer good old-fashioned mackerel fishing---though Capt. Rick of Lewes with his greater determination has kept the flame lit with some nice mackerel catches in the last decade.
Blessed, spurred-ahead even, by fishery council permits, it was 91 or 92 that giant overseas fish factory-ship processors were allowed in. US trawlers caught the mackerel and sold them to these factory ships. This created a long, sustained price spike; supply was found to suit demand: I believe it was more pressure than the southern stock of mackerel could stand. So steep was our recreational decline in catch that by 1995 we had no more clients willing to go.
 
Also from the cod's stomach: Reef dwellers. Though the seahorses and sea mice of this fish's stomach are not what I usually write about, they are a part of the reef's ecology--as is the fact that's where the cod got caught. 
 
This one fish's stomach contents, indeed the fish itself, has a habitat footprint that is hard to get your head around..  It touches upon everything from filter-feeding reef-building communities to the effects of copepod production/predation by giant fin and humpback whales and every predator in between.. And cod, cod with the splendid genetic inclination to migrate further south than most: Once abundant, they're missed.
 
Point is: What a big project!
Restoring our fisheries is huge in scope.
Too much predation here, a missing habitat type there, a misplaced decimal makes-for a huge over-estimate of catch, a gross rebuilding overestimate based on loose historical data..
Information is pouring in though: Building. Better.
Might want Flexibility - Be able to act on new information.
We're at a transition now where some species are beyond fully rebuilt, where we need flexibility to adjust management plans/regulations to fit a different circumstance; Where the fish are doing fine and it would be best to be more mindful of the fisher.
We're also finding that we do not know all there is to know; That we are not so gifted that we are able to discern all there is about the ocean by rocketing to the moon; That stock estimates and catch estimates can be grossly incorrect: A manager with flexibility could act for fish or fisher as needed.
 
Inflexibility is where we are.
Managers will not adjust the recreational catch estimates for sea bass despite such adjustment would be well within the statistically correct spread of MRFSS's estimates: No, they'll hold fast to their data centerpoints..
The troubles of red snapper fishers whose rebuilding targets are out of this world - impossible to meet in 10 years, yet the fish are in great abundance.
The MD summer flounder meeting where many chose to have a 19 inch size limit in order to extend the season as close to Thanksgiving as possible: We're told this is rebuilding. Much-needed rebuilding.. We're rebuilding a fish, summer flounder, that no one can recall in greater profusion than now nor repeat stories from those who came before us of these fish in greater numbers.. Such fantastic populations.. 
Unfortunately, I suspect flounder will have to block the Potomac before regulators throw in the towel; admit maybe the fish are doing OK.
 
We need flexibility.
 
We need management and the super-powers in environmentalism to realize that fisheries science is not infallible.. No, instead it's youthful and prone to mistakes.
We need to move our sharply focused restoration efforts away from the glamour species; Away from the stripers, cod, scup, black sea bass, and above all, summer flounder: Refocused, these efforts now look to where these super-populations of fish live and upon what they need for feed, for prey, in order to support even greater populations.
And too, restoration effort needs to be shifted to where none has gone; The northern stocks of spadefish, triggerfish, amberjack; The southernmost stocks red hake, scup and, indeed, codfish.
 
Why did they once commonly catch white marlin inshore..
 
What we need most, right now, is for those guiding these efforts from the corner offices--the apex predators of pay-scale--to look at the use of MRFSS data, the use of its centerpoint.
That's not regulation; Management doesn't have to by law..
No, using the centerpoint of gigantic MRFSS spreads is internal policy.
You threw us under the bus for that?
Where's the humanity..
Data from a dying & discredited program held in such high regard by those who form policy. Amazing.
History is being made.
There's just a little time left before this part gets written.
 
The 2010 sea bass regulations remain in question or at least unpublished. There must be controversy. I hope--I sincerely hope--that what's being argued is the validity of the catch data - not whose plan, based on bad data, will hold sway.. That Emperors aren't drawing arms to prove they have the best new clothes...
 
Like the codfish's food web, it's a lot to get your head around. Believe this: Recreational fishers did not go over their sea bass quota in 2009. There was no need for that economic knee-capping last fall: And there is no need to hand our head to us in 2010 either. The data's bad and some know it.
 
New data's in on summer flounder.
I see that MD shore fishers caught 50-some thousand less flounder last year than in '07. Oh they still hold a trophy though; the MRFSS estimates have them, the jetty, bank & surf fishers, outfishing partyboats by a wide margin again in '09. They really got thrashed, however, by the private boat guys--just creamed. Private boats--all this according to catch estimate data used to set seasons--caught more in '09 than '08--almost 79,000 flounder in MD. Party boat captains were all hungover or something though, we supposedly caught half as much as the previous year, just 1,361 flounder--They say we only caught 1,355 sea bass too.
I'm ashamed.
 
I really am. Errors cumulative; I'm ashamed that our regulators use this Bad Science to destroy our coastal businesses.
That needs to change.
Think I'll drop my Representatives another line.
 
Regards,
Monty
 
Capt. Monty Hawkins
mhawkins@siteone.net
Party Boat "Morning Star"
Reservation Line 410 520 2076
http://www.morningstarfishing.com/

posted by Monty  # Wednesday, March 03, 2010

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