Fish Report 3/16/26
Boat Overhaul Progresses..
Opening 'Will Call' Tickets at Sale Prices..
But After This? Prices Are Going Up. Have To!
Greetings All!
Essentially to fund finishing (and interest payments!) of my new engines (& so much more!) a truly major boat overhaul, I'm opening advance 'will call' ticket sales with last year's prices. They're not going to remain at last year's rates. Can't. I'll have to increase. New pricing will go in effect in April..
Sea bass might open May first this year. We have it from the very best of 'insider information' that sea bass will run May 1st to the end Dec and be a half inch shorter at 12.5 inches.
Almost!
Until I see the new regs from an Annapolis press release, however, I'll not have Marisa book dates.
I'll open reservations soon after the State announces. Here I am offering 'will call' tickets to buy in advance of season. Buy one or a few trips at last year's rates - or buy ten tix for $10.00 more off per trip (so $100.00 off ten tix.)
Weekday and Sunday trips in this sale are $145.00 -- or $135.00 with ten or more -- Saturday and Holiday weekend (like Memorial Day weekend) are $165 or $155.00 at ten or more. As ever, all bottom fishing trips sell out at 18 anglers for plenty of room per angler.
There are No Refunds on these sales, but I'll honor them far into the future - years if need be.
I have over $200K into this major overhaul - including new Cummins QSL9 engines - lots of new everything below the passenger deck! I will have to raise fares for 2026. This will be a one time offer.
Also! When DNR does announce our sea bass season - Marisa will call early ticket buyers, in order, for first crack at spots before I announce to the world.
Believe this, if sea bass do open May 1st, there it's no slam dunk sea bass will have come in from the canyons already. The ocean takes far longer to warm than bays. In 2004 we had archival tags show sea bass went from 260 ft to 850 ft in mid-march in 2004 - as bays were warming, the ocean floor grew colder! Cold water pushing south can switch things up quick.
Do I think we'll catch well May first?
Yes.
Am I positive?
Oyyyy... No, I am not.
Marisa has been my best reservationist since Miss Diane & Deb of years ago. Still, she's a one mom operation; might be slammed when I hit send. (or maybe not!) If she cannot pick up, leave her a message. She has a method to her madness and she's good at it..
Reservations at 443-235-5577 - The line closes at 8pm and reopens at 8am. She won’t take reservations for trips that are not announced.
If you want to take advantage of these advance 'will call' tix, call the reservation line at 443-235-5577 and speak with Marisa.. Emailing me is no good - she handles sales.. I do check email for questions, check FaceBook messenger too..
Fish Report 3/16/26
Greetings All,
Lot of talk about this year's coming relaxation of sea bass regulation - we hope! Sure looks that way but until State Governors announce, it's just extremely educated speculation from the best of sources - a foretelling I sincerely hope is true.
Kicking around in the catch estimates I learned Virginia Private Boat folks averaged 23.7 keeper sea bass at 1.7 lbs in May/June 2023.. Yes, our bag limit is 15 per person. That's a whole lot of illegal fishing
..or just another goofed up MRIP catch estimate.
What looks likely to ease our regulatory burden falls squarely on NOAA's catch estimates.
In 2024 Virginia's Private Boat estimate fell by roughly 450,000 sea bass. Virginia's May/June Private Boat sea bass catch had risen by 200K in 2021 and stayed well above average until 24. Then, in 25, it rose back again but only half of incredibly wrong. As sea bass regs are set in two year periods this sets up our possible regulatory relaxation. (And highlights the need to finally get catch estimates right!)
As you can see in the graph, Virginia's May/June estimates went haywire a few years back. In 2021 they jumped up over an order of magnitude (x10) from the May/June period of both 2019 & 20 previously.
I thought I'd have a look at catch per unit of effort or "CPUE" to see just how smelly they are.
It's a pain to access the "how many folks went fishing for ___" to answer the question, "what was the average catch per person." MRIP's catch estimate "primary directed and secondary target" trip data is a hard pull. Here I was looking for folks fishing for sea bass primarily, but also as a seconday target -- for instance those targeting summer flounder (fluke to those above DE Bay) with sea bass as a secondary target. You can only do one year/state/two month period (or 'wave') at a time..
I argued the data hard when it first posted and regs tightened. But, like all Recreational catch data, VA's MRIP recreational catch data cannot be argued: "it's the law" I think it's really just policy if deeply ingrained.
Though MRIP provides a PSE spread (a statistical spread often over several hundred thousand fish - I've even seen several million!) managers will not consider anywhere in this spread save the center.
I was at the meeting in the 1990s (97?) when the Council decided endless arguments about catch estimates were holding up the process - slowing their work. It was decided to only use the statistical centerpoint for management's purpose.
Statisticians don't say, "This is exacly how many fish they caught" - they give a broad number: "what they caught is 95% likely in this spread of numbers." In May/June 2021 MRIP's statisticians said, "VA Private Boats caught between 2,442 & 476,289 sea bass."
Managers said, "OK, Good. 239,652 sea bass it is - and don't you Dare try to argue it (even though no one in Fisheries Science or Management actually believed it.)
Management will not touch the statistical centerpoint save under the very worst circumstances.
Ohhh, IDK, like when NY Private Boats caught under 10K pounds in 2014, then landed 2,800,000 in 2016. That was more sea bass by NY Private Boats in Nov/Dec than ALL commercial fishing above Hatteras was allowed ALL YEAR - more by NY Private Boats (most already put on the hard for winter) than the entire Commercial quota. Yup. They softened that one a bit - sort of..
As if catch estimates weren't bad enough, and "center-point only" use has driven drove a huge spike through recreational fishing's heart many times; then they estimate what those fish weighed - are converted into pounds..
You know, like when DE Shore anglers (shore only, mind you) caught 6,500 cbass that averaged 1.7 apiece pounds in 2016. It was more than DE ForHire had caught.
Yup. MRIP estimates are like that.
A Lot.
Every time you've seen regs tighten? That's why.
Believe me, no one in the management process believes the catch data anymore. It's considered 'the law' by NOAA and must be used. (I think it's really just policy..)
In this example below you can see in the graph VA Private Boats May/June sea bass landings shot up over an order of magnitude in 2021 from 2020's 18,000 to 2021's 240,000. (Oh, those sea bass were fat ones too; averaged 1.8lbs..)
Now, along DelMarVa our three states average MRIP estimates into a region to soften the regulatory blow when MRIP generates a statistical spike like VA's in 2021. (MD Private Boat was 4X higher too in 2021 at 100K) In response to that giant leap we had a regulatory increase from 12.5 inches to 13 inches in 2022. Had VA been alone? They'd have likely been closed in 2022.
MD and DE have had similar saves with regional 'statistical cushioning.' MD would have lost an entire flounder season a while back if VA and DE weren't averaged in.
While DE & MD's Private Boat landings estimates were under 30k in 2022, VA's shot higher still to 270k sea bass at 1.7lbs average..
So, managers cut half of Oct from our season in 2023.
VA was at it again though. In 2023 Virginia's Private Boat sea bass landings were at 311K in May/June. This time they weighed an average of 1.7 pounds..
And, when I divided the number of people MRIP claims went fishing for sea bass as their primary or secondary target, about 13,100 folks, it turns out they would have had to average 23.7 sea bass per person to achieve the number of fish estimated
..but our bag limit is 15.
Hmmm...
I'm in contact with NOAA about this business all the time - especially lately as they're planning an MRIP overhaul.
All ForHire skippers Have To tell NOAA what they catch every day - every trip. It's called a VTR or 'vessel trip report.' If we so not send them? No Permits.
But MRIP rarely estimates our catch at but a slim fraction of what we told them. Seriously - see the graphs.
This mess needs to be cleaned up.
NOAA's folks may understand statistics at a PhD level; even The National Academy of Sciences has approved these statistics over and over - but if unwilling to accept the actual reports from the 'eyes on' of multi-decade experienced skippers? Well, it sure hasn't worked yet.
I'm serious. They won't even consider What We Tell Them We Caught as data.
Since the early 2000s I've held fisheries science and management should take our Vessel Trip Reports (VTRs) - what we tell them we caught every day - alongside what other boats ForHIre skippers think they see on the water and make a 'red flag' system. In these graphs you can see actual For Hire VTR submissions are way above MRIP's ForHire catch estimates. (It's universally like that too!) Here VA's ForHire guys tell me their Private Boats catch about 20% of the sea bass they do. So 40k ForHire fish would be 8,000 fish for VA Private Boat. That number could easily be adjusted for accuracy. You can sure bet VA Private Boats didn't catch 11X what ForHire did.. It's a super simple way to test MRIP data for some fisheries.
Another way to test ought to be more trusted by regulators - Video Footage of Ocean Access Points.
Sakes.. We did it in Ocean City a few years back - MAFMC ran video a few years. Where MRIP said about 750 boats per day were having great luck catching fish in July/Aug, 2021 ..the video camera saw just over a hundred fishing boats per day.
It's an EasyEasyEasy way to throw out bad effort estimates.
Among possible repairs, ways to flag bad estimates before they see light of day; I recently remembered including CPUE (what catch per unit of effort/catch per person boils down to). If managers saw a CPUE for every estimate it would be another way to raise suspicion when a really bad estimate comes through. It's not a new idea for me, just one I hadn't recalled in some while.
Bad recreational estimates - often vastly inflated - mean we cannot recognize habitat improvement's effect on fish populations. It makes spawning successes disappear - even exponential spawning increases aren't remotely obvious and should be.
Major regulation changes usually cannot be seen in NOAA's recreational catch estimates. Regs tighten and we feel and see the pinch in VTRs - but Private Boat catch often goes higher. Statistically at least.
Lot of folks want to leave our waters and fish populations better than we found them. I certainly do. MRIP catch estimates are one yardstick that absolutely has to get fixed if we're to ever truly gain & measure management's successes and failures.
Fisheries Science and Management's successes are, right now, only by luck of the draw.
Because a 'Fishery' includes the human side, failures in management are frequent.
Many principles and equations in Fisheries Science (which lead directly to Management) are sound - but don't work when fed bad data.
Has long needed repair. Hope they get it done this time.
Cheers,
Monty
And a FaceBook post from 3/10/26 - you can see Ocean City Reef Foundation posts without a password or 'membership.'
***
We deployed the Navy boat in memory of Diane Olenginski today. Approaching a perfectly calm, if somewhat foggy inlet at 10:45 am;
Tow Boat US's Capts Rob, Billy and Brett; and my crew, Joe, Donny, with Tanner for the strong arm assist, plus Shelly, Pete and I for cheering. (ehh, I coached the mooring anchors set - a bit of instruction for the future..)
At 10:55 we handed off to TowBoat US Rob's Zodiac about a half mile out and quickly made way with his Titan America for the Bass Grounds to set the reef mooring.
The double buoy and flag went by the stern at noon exactly. The mooring was set nicely, perfectly really, to add to existing reef.
We cannot afford reefing ships. They cost millions, sometimes many millions(!) to prep and deploy. A cluster of smaller steel boats, bolstered with pyramids and blocks around the area, makes a fine reef though - promise. Indeed, given the funding it takes to build a mega dive site, I'd rather build with pipe units over a ship any day. Way more reef for sponsors' dollars - far more biological production of all manner.
Once Capt Rob and the boys had her on the mooring, Donny, Joe & Tanner removed patch screws from the back side -- working aboard a boat that's about to sink! Once clear we began prybarring plywood off her hull on both sides. A bit after one o'clock she was drinking hard. At sixty gallons per second (per Capt. Rob's actual calculations!) it wasn't long before she was on the bottom - six minutes! Fastest ever for me, in fact.
She sank stern first and fell forward, appearing to have sunk upright - the Navy boat will be on our 2027 charts "In Memory of Diane Olenginski."
Being super close - exactly in between two other pieces - we made a pass to ensure we were within our ACOE permit clearance restrictions.
Perfect..
I anticipate lots of sea bass using the reef in less than three months, with triggerfish soon after. As reef growths mature, tautog will begin using it as well - perhaps even in year one. That would be super fast. Usually it takes three or four years for tautog to use new reef.
I have no doubt Diane Olenginski's Memorial Reef will become among our best reefs ever.
Reef building really is about the nooks and crannies. The more surface area that has good water flow, the more life a reef can support.
Maryland is the only state without a marine reef program. The Town of Ocean City holds our Army Corps permits (& is applying for renewals on several expired permits TYVM!) Our little non-profit, the OC Reef Foundation at ocreefs.org, builds reef in tight accordance with state and fed regulations.
We are making a difference in our region's marine production - guaranteed.
We have our annual Reef Feast at Hooper's Crab House coming soon. Tickets are live ((but, sakes, reef email has a glitch at the moment. I'm at capt.montyhawkins@gmail.com until that's straightened out..))
We need donations for raffles, plus silent and live auctions. If you'd like to ask around for donations there are donation forms at Atlantic Tackle and AllTackle.
One idea I'm trying this year is coming together super sweet. A live auction item; someone's going to fish offshore a bunch this summer aboard several awesome boats. Six owners have contributed a 'ride along' trip for one angler. These are some top notch boats! So far I have Moore Bills, Absolute Pleasure, Wrecker, Foolish Pleasures, Hopper & Restless Lady II.. Maybe we'll have more step forward and make it two winners!
There will be lots and lots of prizes to vie for including bottom fishing trips and charters. Park Place Jewelers are sponsoring our mystery boxes - there's going to be some bling won, for sure! We even have a beautiful handmade quilt donated already.. More on that later!
Let's Build Some Reef!
Cheers All!
Monty
Capt. Monty Hawkins
mhawkins@morningstarfishing.com
Reef Restoration Makes Fisheries Restorations Simple!